Senior analysts and diplomats raised urgent warnings on Saturday about the risk of a global economic recession as the US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz entered what many described as its most critical stage yet. With oil prices already hovering around $120 per barrel, the potential destruction of Kharg Island’s full export capacity and the extended closure of the Hormuz strait threatened to cause cascading damage to economies worldwide. The war had already entered its third week with no ceasefire in sight.
The United States bombed Kharg Island on Friday and continued strikes on Saturday, while Iran launched missile attacks on the UAE and maintained its assault on Israel. Fujairah, a critical oil-bunkering port in the UAE, was forced to suspend loading operations after Iranian ballistic missiles struck the area. Footage broadcast widely showed thick smoke billowing from the emirate’s coastline. Iran’s military told residents near ports and US installations to evacuate, signalling the possibility of further strikes.
President Trump said in public remarks that US strikes had effectively demolished most of Kharg Island. On social media, he called on allies including China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to contribute warships to a coalition effort to reopen the strait. Iran’s supreme leader was confirmed to have been wounded in an earlier Israeli strike, though Iranian officials insisted the injuries were not life-threatening. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the leadership was “desperate and hiding.”
Energy experts laid out the stark arithmetic. Kharg Island handles the bulk of Iran’s oil exports, and the Strait of Hormuz carries approximately 20 percent of global oil and gas supplies. If either was fully disabled, oil prices could surge well above $150 per barrel, triggering inflation, supply shortages, and potential recessions in import-dependent nations. Trump had refrained from ordering the full destruction of Iran’s oil infrastructure but explicitly tied that restraint to Iran’s behaviour in the strait. Iran showed no indication of backing down.
The death toll from the conflict continued to rise. Iran reported between 1,400 and 1,800 killed under relentless bombing, with residents describing an unrelenting campaign across the country. Thirteen people had died in Israel, and 20 in the broader Gulf. The US embassy in Baghdad was struck by missiles, and Americans were urged to leave Iraq. Lebanon was suffering in parallel, with more than 800 killed and 850,000 displaced amid Israeli operations against Hezbollah. Analysts said the pressure on Trump to find an exit from the conflict before the economic damage became irreversible was intensifying rapidly.